Backtest Result (Experiment 008)

$27,000

in taxes avoided through covered call income over 3 years

145K

Observations

real options data

7

Tickers Tested

grid searched

57-100%

Win Rates

across tiers

$27K

Tax Savings

over 3 years

With vs Without Copilot

Without Copilot

Pick random strikes based on gut feel

No idea when to close -- hold until expiry

Miss ex-dividend dates, get assigned unexpectedly

Same strategy for every stock regardless of volatility

No data on what actually works

With Copilot

Backtested OTM% and DTE per ticker from 145K observations

Real-time alerts: SAFE, WATCH, CLOSE_SOON, CLOSE_NOW

Ex-dividend and earnings tracking built in

Per-ticker strategy tuned by win rate and expected P&L

Every recommendation backed by experiment data

Best Strategy Per Ticker

Ticker
Tier
OTM %
DTE
Expected P&L
Win Rate
Note
TMUS
Best
3%
20-45
$2,276
57%
Profitable at every OTM%. Best stock for covered calls.
KKR
Strong
3%
20-45
$1,796
80%
3yr data, 41 trades. High win rate with close strikes.
DIS
Good
7%
30-60
$822
71%
Needs more OTM buffer — occasional big moves.
AAPL
Conservative
15%
20-45
$351
100%
100% win rate at 15% OTM. Tiny premium but never loses.
TXN
Skip
--
--
$0
0%
Too volatile. Loses money at every OTM%.

What Happens in a Crash?

Covered calls reduce losses in every scenario. The premium collected acts as a buffer. Per $100K portfolio.

2020 COVID crash

-34%
-$34,000
Stock Loss
+$2,800
CC Premium
-$31,200
Net Loss

2022 bear market

-25%
-$25,000
Stock Loss
+$3,500
CC Premium
-$21,500
Net Loss

Flash crash

-15%
-$15,000
Stock Loss
+$2,200
CC Premium
-$12,800
Net Loss

Normal correction

-10%
-$10,000
Stock Loss
+$2,600
CC Premium
-$7,400
Net Loss
Methodology

All data comes from backtests on historical options data (2021-2024) across 7 tickers. The strategy grid search (Experiment 008) tested every combination of OTM% (1-10%) and DTE (14-60 days) to find the optimal parameters per ticker.

Win rate is defined as the percentage of trades where the option expires worthless (you keep shares + full premium). Expected P&L is the average net profit per trade cycle including assignment losses.

Crash scenarios (Experiment 010) model the premium buffer effect during historical market drawdowns, assuming a $100K portfolio with continuous covered call writing.

All data from backtests on historical options data (2021-2024). Past performance does not guarantee future results. Covered calls limit upside in exchange for income and downside cushion.